The Power of Word of Mouth: An Epidemiology of Book Sales

I've always heard (and never doubted) that the best, most certain way to sell books is word of mouth: if your friend liked it and recommends it to you, odds are you'll buy the book they recommended rather than the one next to it on the shelf about which you've heard nothing.

And though this principle always made sense to me--you tend to trust the opinions of your friends, and groups of friends tend to be fairly like-minded in their tastes and interests (my friends' love of the Ottawa Senators notwithstanding)--it really struck home last night when I was reading Pat Rothfuss blog. 

It was because this "word of mouth" principle was put into a striking visual form. See, some fan's of Pat Rothfuss' book The Name of the Wind showed up en masse at a book signing and presented Pat Rothfuss with a genealogy of how it came to be that the whole group had read his book.

Yeah, that's right--a family tree of discovering an author. How cool is that? And how cool are Pat Rothfuss fans!?!? Check out the visual here.

It started with one person. She saw or read something on the internet, picked up the book as a result, and after loving the book (and it's a good one!) she started spreading the word amongst her friends. From her recommendation to two friends, it looks like at least 26 people read (and looks like most loved, because they kept spreading the word) The Name of the Wind.

What blows my mind is seeing how this meme propagated through this group of friends, and presumably out into other circles that each of these people in the tree are part of. This is the kind of chart an epidemiologist would make up to track an outbreak of ebola or something--tracking back links of contact to a single cause, the Patient Zero. This just blows my mind.

Did all these people buy a copy of Pat Rothfuss' book? Probably not. They might have borrowed one from the friend who recommended it (I can't count how many times I've thrust a book into my buddy Andre's arms and said: "You need to read THIS"), or borrowed one from a library. But I bet more than a few of them bought the book in one form or another.

Did they all recommend the book to someone else? Based on this chart, no. But nearly half of them did (and, who knows, this chart could be incomplete).

But what I would be willing to bet money on is that, having loved the first book in the series, ALL of these folks were rabidly waiting for the follow-up volume, The Wise Man's Fear. I bet most of them bought the book as soon at they could. I also bet they then continued to spread the word about this series of books they loved.

Just think about this for a second: the POWER that word-of-mouth has in book buying decisions. When I finish my novel, if I could get everyone who loved the book to tell just two friend who they think might like it, how many copies do you think that could sell? And if those two friends told two more friends, and they told two more, etc. etc., and if even just half of all these people told two friends, how many copies do you think that would sell? One person's recommendation here set off nearly 30 people reading and/or buying the book, and probably close to all 30 buying the second volume of the trilogy. Think about that--think about the sales! It's no wonder that Pat Rothfuss (besides being a great writer) made it to the New York Times bestseller list. This is the way The DaVinci Code, or Twilight, or Fifty Shades of Grey take off. Any meme that can propagate that fast is bound to make a mark.

So if you've ever doubted that the best way to sell books is word of mouth stop doubting...and start figuring out a way to generate that kind of word-of-mouth buzz for your book!

- S.

It Should be the What, Not the How

I read a wonderful--and true to life--piece in The New York Times the other day, called "Stupid Writer Tricks." The author, novelist Ben Dolnick, laments his time spent investigating the writing techniques of famous writers (as in how they wrote, like, where they sat when they wrote, or whether they used a No. 2 pencil or a typewriter, etc. rather than their actual writing).

As he puts it in the article:

I had, for a long time, a profound vulnerability to hearing about these sorts of routines. Of course I knew that writing was terrifically hard work, and that there was no secret code, as in a video game, that would unlock Tolstoy-mode, enabling me to crank out canon-worthy novellas before lunch. But I persisted in believing that I might one day come upon some technique, some set of tricks, that would vault me irreversibly onto the professional plane. I didn’t have a working printer, but I agreed wholeheartedly with Joan Didion that I needed to be sleeping in the same room as my manuscript, so as never to lose touch with it. It would be years before I’d written so much as a single chapter of a novel, but I knew that when I finished a book, I would, like Anthony Trollope, begin my next one on the very same day.

I confess to seeing a lot of truth, and a lot of myself, in this piece.

The "imaginary author interviews I occasionally conduct with myself while brushing my teeth" that Dolnick mentions bear more than a passing resemblance to my own inner fantasy life (though usually I'm on Letterman or Craig Ferguson, not in the pages of The Paris Review). And I would be lying if I said I haven't been occasionally browsing the prices of stand-up desks since learning that's how Hemingway preferred to work. (I've also taken to drinking mojitos on the same principle).

So I resolved to take Mr. Dolnick's advice: he points out that

the important thing is not the techniques, but the spirit in which you take them up. If you reach out, as I spent all those years doing, like a drowning man for a scrap of wood, then you’ll most likely flail until you and your technique sink together in an unhappy mass. If, though, you can reach out from a position of calm, as a swimmer reaches out for a kickboard before turning to begin his next lap, then you might find yourself feeling what all the tricks and tips are finally pointing toward: freedom.

Naturally, what was the first thing I did after vowing to be more free of concerns about writing, about not worrying so much about how I write and just write more, and not spending so much time investigating how others have done the same work in the past?

I read this article by Austin Grossman about how working on video games taught him how to write.

Naturally.

- S.

PS: I really wish Dolnick hadn't pointed out that all those Paris Review interviews are available online...

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The Fast-Track to Making a Million Dollars From Writing Books

Okay, so I stole the title of this post from this article in Forbes--sounds like a Forbes title when you think about it, doesn't it?

There's been a lot of buzz about Jennifer L. Armentrout lately and the success she's had with her self-published best-seller Wait for You. The Forbes article lays out the details and strategy of how Armentrout and her agent built her career and then positioned her for best-seller success with her self-published e-book (or is it "indie published" now? It's like the trekkie/trekker debate...). Their very successful strategy has resulted in HarperCollins acquiring the project for a "high six-figure" advance.

All of this is well and good and the article is an interesting and informative read. But what I really want to highlight from it was the Five Tips on How to Make a Million Dollars Writing that are included at the end of the article.

I love reading these success stories: let's face it, I hope to replicate them someday soon. But it always seems to me that these stories are in more than one way just stories about lightning striking, and we all know what they say about lightning striking in the same place twice.

When e-book self-pub/indie-pub first became a thing it seemed like the only barrier to success was having a product. Any product. There was so little competition initially that whatever was on offer was going to get some notice, no matter how bad the cover design was. But with the flood of e-books available now it's harder and harder to get noticed. So people have to be creative about how they promote and market their books. The days when all you needed was a blog, or a Facebook account, or a Twitter handle to promote your book are well and truly over. Those things are fine, and maybe even necessary these days, but when EVERYONE has them you can't authentically claim you're standing out, can you? You're really just part of the background noise of how-things-are (he says while writing on his blog...)

Like any system, as e-book indie publishing gets more and more complex there are fewer and fewer new and unanticipated ways to do things: the playing field keeps getting leveled (especially in this online realm) by everyone knowing and doing the same things that helped propel someone else before them (Amanda Hocking, say, or John Locke) to fame and fortune (though I personally would settle just for the fortune).

That's why I especially like the Five Tips on How to Make a Million Dollars Writing that are included at the end of the article. They are solid advice but they also take into account much of how publishing has changed and continues to change in the e-book era, check them out in the article or below with my comments:

Five Tips on How to Make a Million Dollars Writing From Armentrout’s Story

1. Write what you want to write. In Armentrout’s case, she wrote the new adult contemporary novel that she wanted to write even though she knew it would be hard to sell.
["Write what you want to write" is the first piece of advice that every writer has ever given me--there's no mistaking the passion that goes into something you want to write rather than trying to chase a trend. Write something you care about, Tim Powers told me, and then find and agent and an editor who you can make care about it, too. - S]

2. Build a platform. If you want to have commercial success as an author, it almost goes without saying these days that you need to build a dedicated following using social media and other Web tools.
[This, I think, is the trickiest one of these tips--as in the trick is how to do this. Like I said, everyone has an author blog, a Facebook page, a Twitter, etc. Generating a fanbase and community is where the real marketing and networking creativity has to happen, I think, and where you need to do something unique to make that lightning strike. I have my own idea--or, rather, my wife who is much smarter than me came up with my idea for me--and I hope to roll that out for you sometime this year. - S]

3. Write a lot. One thing that helped Armentrout build her platform was writing many, many books. She has more than a dozen out already with more on the way — and that’s just two years after her first book came out.
["Be prolific," was Kevin J. Anderson's advice to us at Writers of the Future and it's more true than ever in the e-book age. If people like one thing you wrote they are likely to click and buy everything else you've written if its all right there on Amazon anyway... Prolificness (is that a word?) is what I, and most writers, continue to struggle with. - S]

4. Consider all your options. Armentrout first tried the traditional route. When that didn’t work, she tried other things. When publishers wouldn’t buy her latest book, she self-published. Authors have more options than ever today and they shouldn’t be ignoring any of them.
[Not closing off options is, I think, key in the new publishing world. I want a 'traditional' publishing contract with one of the big New York houses--who doesn't? But if they don't bite then I plan to explore small press options--I already have a couple of publishers in mind who I think would like my stuff--and if that's a wash, too, then there's always indie pub. Or maybe I'll jump right to indie pub if New York doesn't want it. Or skip New York and go small press right away. Who knows? There are just so many more options for writers these days, and any (or all!) of them can bring you success. I remember even just four or five years ago how panelists at Ad Astra or World Fantasy poo-pooed the notion of digital self-publishing. This year at World Fantasy there was a whole programming track on digital self/indie pub and the rooms were PACKED. How quickly things change these days! - S]

5. Learn the tricks of the industry. The price drop that Armentrout executed for her book was not easy to do. By knowing what’s happening in the publishing industry and how publishers are finding success, Armentrout was able to leverage that to propel her own sales.
[This seems to have been a key to her success, and it was carefully coordinated with help from her agent. This is something that sometimes only professionals know how to do. I'm hopeful my nearly 10-years working in publishing will help me to have a leg-up on this aspect when it comes time to publish my book, but I'm not above hiring some outside help if I can to help me succeed! - S]

- S.

2012 Nebula Awards Nominees

The Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America (SFWA) has announced the nominees for the 2012 Nebula Awards. The Nebula Awards have been one of the most prestigious science fiction awards since they were first awarded in 1966, with the nominees and winners being voted on by the author's peers--kind of like the sci-fi equivalent of the Screen Actors Guild Awards. In other words, it means your fellow writers think you're awesome. 

I'm THRILLED for my friend Aliette de Bodard for her TWO Nebula nominations this year. I'm also thrilled for friends Leah Bobet and Alethea Kontis for their nominations for the Andre Norton Award for Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy Book, awarded alongside the Nebulas. Awesome writers, all. 

Ah, and I knew them when...

Here's a complete list of the nominees. Awards will be presented at SFWA’s 48th Annual Nebula Awards Weekend, to be held May 16-19, 2013 at the San Jose Hilton in San Jose CA. At the same event, Gene Wolfe will be the honored with the 2012 Damon Knight Grand Master Award for his lifetime contributions and achievements in the field.

Novel 
Throne of the Crescent Moon, Saladin Ahmed (DAW; Gollancz ’13)
Ironskin, Tina Connolly (Tor)
The Killing Moon, N.K. Jemisin (Orbit US; Orbit UK)
The Drowning Girl, Caitlín R. Kiernan (Roc)
Glamour in Glass, Mary Robinette Kowal (Tor)
2312, Kim Stanley Robinson (Orbit US; Orbit UK)

Novella 
On a Red Station, Drifting, Aliette de Bodard (Immersion Press)
After the Fall, Before the Fall, During the Fall, Nancy Kress (Tachyon)
“The Stars Do Not Lie”, Jay Lake (Asimov’s 10-11/12)
“All the Flavors”, Ken Liu (GigaNotoSaurus 2/1/12)
“Katabasis”, Robert Reed (F&SF 11-12/12)
“Barry’s Tale”, Lawrence M. Schoen (Buffalito Buffet)

Novelette 
"The Pyre of New Day", Catherine Asaro (The Mammoth Books of SF Wars)
“Close Encounters”, Andy Duncan (The Pottawatomie Giant & Other Stories)
“The Waves”, Ken Liu (Asimov’s 12/12)
“The Finite Canvas”, Brit Mandelo (Tor.com 12/5/12)
“Swift, Brutal Retaliation”, Meghan McCarron (Tor.com 1/4/12)
“Portrait of Lisane da Patagnia”, Rachel Swirsky (Tor.com 8/22/12)
“Fade to White”, Catherynne M. Valente (Clarkesworld 8/12)

Short Story 
“Robot”, Helena Bell (Clarkesworld 9/12)
“Immersion”, Aliette de Bodard (Clarkesworld 6/12)
“Fragmentation, or Ten Thousand Goodbyes”, Tom Crosshill (Clarkesworld 4/12)
“Nanny’s Day”, Leah Cypess (Asimov’s 3/12)
“Give Her Honey When You Hear Her Scream”, Maria Dahvana Headley (Lightspeed 7/12)
“The Bookmaking Habits of Select Species”, Ken Liu (Lightspeed 8/12)
“Five Ways to Fall in Love on Planet Porcelain”, Cat Rambo (Near + Far)

Ray Bradbury Award for Outstanding Dramatic Presentation
The Avengers 
Beasts of the Southern Wild 
The Cabin in the Woods 
The Hunger Games 
John Carter 
Looper

Andre Norton Award for Young Adult Science Fiction and Fantasy Book 
Iron Hearted Violet, Kelly Barnhill (Little, Brown)
Black Heart, Holly Black (S&S/McElderry; Gollancz)
Above, Leah Bobet (Levine)
The Diviners, Libba Bray (Little, Brown; Atom)
Vessel, Sarah Beth Durst (S&S/McElderry)
Seraphina, Rachel Hartman (Random House; Doubleday UK)
Enchanted, Alethea Kontis (Harcourt)
Every Day, David Levithan (Alice A. Knopf Books for Young Readers)
Summer of the Mariposas, Guadalupe Garcia McCall (Tu Books)
Railsea, China Miéville (Del Rey; Macmillan)
 Fair Coin, E.C. Myers (Pyr)
Above World, Jenn Reese (Candlewick)

Rebirth of the Short Form?

I've long wondered whether novellas or novelettes would see a resurgence with the advent of everyday e-book readers: after all, an author could write a story that is 20,000 or 40,000 words long and potentially sell it for the same amount as a 'traditional' 100,000 word novel (the length of your average paperback...back when they still had paperbacks--remember them?) So that author could, theoretically, write three to five times as many stories in the same time it would take to write a single novel and, perhaps, triple or quintuple his or her income from writing. It's an idea that has merit.

What I didn't expect (but probably should have) was the renewed interest in the short story itself, and in collections of them, particularly from individual authors.

So, an interesting article in The New York Times late last week about the growing sales trend for short stories and short story collections. Find it here.

One of my writerly New Years resolutions for 2013 was to get my published short stories up for sale online (individually and in collection form) and this certainly has renewed my enthusiasm to do so! Keep watching this space for more details!

- S.